Translate[Archived] Question #38: How does the proposed DASH fare of $2.00 per trip compare to MetroBus fares? What are the potential impacts on ridership and revenue when raising the fare from $1.75 to $2.00?
Question:
How does the proposed DASH fare of $2.00 per trip compare to MetroBus fares? What are the potential impacts on ridership and revenue when raising the fare from $1.75 to $2.00? (Councilman Seifeldein)
Response:
The Metrobus base fare is $2.00 per trip, so the proposed increase in the DASH fare from $1.75 to $2.00 would bring DASH level with Metrobus. The base fare for Arlington Transit and Fairfax Connector is also $2.00. The proposed budget also includes a $5.00 per month increase in the DASH Pass, raising it from $45 to $50.
As DASH staff considered whether to recommend a fare increase to the Alexandria Transit Company’s Board of Directors and to the City Manager for the purpose of his budget proposal, ridership and revenue impacts were the chief concerns. Projecting the ridership impact of a fare increase is not an exact science, however there is a concept of fare elasticity, that is, the percentage change in ridership for each percentage change in fares. A transit industry-standard fare elasticity is -0.33, meaning that every three percent fare increase reduces ridership by one percent. Given relatively high transit demand in the Northern Virginia region compared to the rest of the country, we used a fare elasticity of -0.30 in our calculations which equates to a 4.3% ridership reduction on a 14.3% fare increase
Assuming further that this proposed fare increase will not take effect until September 1, after this summer’s Metrorail shutdown for WMATA’s Platform Improvement Project, we calculated the following ridership and revenue impacts for the remaining 10 months of FY 2020:
- Change in Revenue Ridership (number of trips): 86,587 fewer passenger trips ( a 3.3% reduction when adjusting for partial year implementation and no loss of off-peak Senior ridership since the $1 fare discount would still apply)
- Change in Passenger Revenue: A $262,547 revenue increase based on the 25-cent increase adjusted for fare elasticity.
There is one additional fact to keep in mind when considering these impacts. Beginning July 1, 2018, DASH’s base fare increased from $1.60 to $1.75. Although we projected a ridership decline as a result of the fare increase, through seven months of FY 2019, revenue ridership is essentially flat year over year. This is true even with the federal government shutdown in January and the King Street Station Access Improvement Project. This suggests that actual ridership decreases may continue to be less than projected.